January 14th, 2010

2010 Annular Solar Eclipse PFS Bulletin No. 5

Published at 12:02. Filed under Precision Forecast Service; no comment so far.

FOREWORD

This is 2010 Annular Solar Eclipse PFS Bulletin No. 5, the final forecast update before the eclipse, issued in both English and Chinese. No major changes were made on the forecast philosophy since last bulletin. The forecast diagrams mentioned below may be found at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=en&product_id=2, https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil and http://www.ecmwf.int. Numeric forecast for various locations may be found at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=en&product_id=1. RSS feed of this service is available at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/wordpress/?feed=rss2&cat=46.

ANALYSIS

The three global models, NCEP GFS at JAN14/00Z, ECMWF at JAN 12/12Z, and FNMOC NOGAPS JAN 13/18Z now show an almost consistent forecast: a significant westerly trough over central Yangtze Valley and Western Sichuan Plateau with an associated wet area south of the annularity path to 116E over east. The 1030hPa contour reaches 30N, but the near-surface wind forecast suggests the winter monsoon has weaken at that time. NOGAPS suggested that the visibility of most part of Myanmar, Sichuan Basin, Central Yangtze Valley and nearby area would be poor. EFS suggested a minimum chance of rain along the annularity path.

OBSERVATION

Here is a list of the weather on Jan. 13 of some major cities along the annularity path:

• Mandalay, Myanmar: sunny, visibility around 8 km.
• Ruili, China: overcast to broken clouds, visibility around 20 km.
• Dali, China: sunny, visibility near 30 km.
• Chongqing, China: mist and fog, visibility around 3 km.
• Nanyang, China: mainly sunny, visibility over 20 km.
• Jinan, China: sunny, visibility around 23 km.
• Qingdao, China: sunny, visibility around 15 km.

FORECAST

The divergence between the models is minimum, therefore, the uncertainty of this forecast is reduced to minimum. This forecast also makes use of ground-based observation and satellite data.

Local forecasts are listed below.

• In Myanmar: mainly sunny with a few clouds, with some haze in valley.
• In Yunnan, China: mainly sunny with a few clouds and good visibility.
• Around Chongqing, China: mist and fog, with low visibility, but sunshine is possible on highlands.
• Around Shiyan and Nanyang, China: broken clouds, but likely to be cirrus, with low to fair visibility.
• In Shandong, China: cloudy, but likely to be cirrus, the visibility shall be fair.

REVIEW UPDATE

Before Feburary 28.