July 5th, 2009

Precision Forecast Service about to open

Published at 20:40. Filed under English version; no comment so far.

The service mentioned earlier will be opened soon. The name of the service is Precision Forecast Service, or PFS. In this service, instead of other fully automatic services such as APanel, the results from numeric products will be analyzed and reviewed by human eye, and the result will be published in bulletins. Results from high resolution models (which are still under test now) may also appear. The service is designed for an addition to automatic predictions, so it should run occasionary in the near future.

The first event PFS gets to work is the Great Total Solar Eclipse on July 22, the service should started tomorrow, or July 6. Please note that only rough predition and brief outlook will be given until there is only a week before the event as the limitation of forecast technique our human beings have. The entry date for major models are: GFS - 16 days (July 7 for this event); ECMWF and GDAPS - 10 days (July 13 for this event); for models with acceptable score - 7 days (July 16 for this event); for models with satisfying score - 5 days (July 18 for this event); high confidence - 3 days (July 20 for this event).

Since tomorrow, the service will open and we're able to get some very preliminary guesses of weather around July 22. Any suggestions or comments are warmly welcome from yours. Any redistributions are also encouraged as long as the credit is presented.