APanel service resumed

APanel service has been back into normal.

Emergency fix of APanel

A serious bug of the new APanel was just discovered, this bug has caused ALL forecast released since July 19 to be UNRELIABLE, and all forecast data has been removed.

I have make emergency fix of the program and things should be normal on the next update (2612Z update, should be available around 16h UT today).

My apologize goes to those who were misguided the bad forecast over the past week, and I will keep an eye if the next runs is okay for use.

About the service problems on July 18-24

Many users found that the 7Timer! service stopped updating since July 18 -- this is due to both the server and scripts upgrading, the service has been resumed on July 22. The server at the National Astronomical Observatories had been replaced with a better (and thus faster) one; while I am pleased to announce that with the precious help from Dr. Johnson Lau from Hong Kong, 7Timer! is now running in distributed-processing mode, which enable us to produce the output with less time. I will continue to revise the script code to further reduce the data process time.

But however I later received emails pointing about that the strange and unaccurate output of APanel, which allow me to discover a function switch from PHP 5.2 to 5.3, the function switch had produced unaccurate APanel output. A fix of the APanel script has been installed and will take effect since the next update (around 5h UTC today).

Thank you again for your support of 7Timer!

Server upgrade, bad news, and good news

You may have notice that 7Timer! has been running with frequent errors since July 11. I have to make apologize for this -- I intent to do a power-on upgrade of the server, however the process took much longer than usual and generate many unexpected problems, so the upgrade is not done yet. After working for two days, I barely got things back into normal - it is running okay at this moment, only with occasionary dataset missing at the Weachart section, but this is only a temporal solution.

To begin with, I am pleased to announce that 7Timer! has received a bond support from the Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.astron.ac.cn), they kindly provided an excellent new server, which is intended to run 7Timer! applications ONLY.

However, due to some technical issues, the web application will remain at where it is placed at this moment (at a shared server at National Astronomical Observatories, Beijing). Now, with the generous help from Mr. Johnson Lau, I am working to make both servers working in a distributed ways, which can significantly speed up the process time. I hope the upgrade process can be completely done in a week. By then I will place another announcement here, and before that it is possible for other bad runs to occur.

7Timer! also received assistances from Shanghai Astronomical Observatory through out the year 2010 for new product development, so development of products such as "easyAP", "openAP" is now back on-schedule. I hope easyAP can be available for test by the end of August.

Thanks to all for your support of 7Timer!, your support is the key factor to make the project possible.

Availability of Weachart for 2010 July 11 Solar Eclipse

I am pleased to annouce the availability of Weachart for the total solar eclipse on 2010 July 11. The charts can be achieved on the Weachart product page.

The first charts will be available in the next update (finished at around July 3 18Z).

Site database updated

The USGS site database has been updated to March 2010, now including 2,328,731 entries. Note: the U.S. portion is still of the old version since USGS maintains a seperated database, but I will manage to update it as soon as possible.

日环食精密预测公报第五号

前言

　　这是2010年日环食精密预测公报第五号，为最终预测公报，以中文和英文编制。本报的预测方法较上报没有显著变化。公报中提及的预报资料可在http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=zh_cn&product_id=2, http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil和http://www.ecmwf.int查阅。对于任意地点的数值预报可查阅http: //7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=zh_cn&product_id=1。本服务的RSS种 子为http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/wordpress/?feed=rss2&cat=47。

分析

　　各模式之间的预测已经趋于一致，均显示南支槽正集结于由长江中游至川西高原一带，与其关联的湿区在环食带上延伸至东经116度。1030百帕等值线触及北纬30度，但近地面风场显示届时冬季风已减弱。FNMOC NOGAPS指出能见度不足10公里的区域包含四川盆地和长江中游一带，EFS认为环食带出现显著降雨的概率接近0%。

观测

　　以下是环食带一线部分城市13日17时的气象观测资料：

• 瑞丽：阴到多云间晴，能见度约20公里；
• 大理：晴，能见度接近30公里；
• 重庆：有雾，能见度约3公里；
• 南阳：大致天晴，能见度逾20公里；
• 济南：晴，能见度约23公里；
• 青岛：晴，能见度约15公里。

预报

　　鉴于各模式基本吻合，本报的不确定性减为极小。本报同时参考了地面气象站及卫星的观测结果。

• 云南地区、四川南部：大致晴间少云，能见度较好；
• 重庆地区：有雾，能见度较差，但高地上可能有阳光；
• 十堰、南阳一带：晴间多云，但可能为卷云，能见度偏低到中等；
• 山东地区：多云，但可能为卷云，能见度中等。

　　一片卷云区正集结在青藏高原东部，预计未来48小时内将迅速东移，可能对华中、华东和辽东的部分地区造成影响，建议这一地区的观测者随时注意这一片云区的动态；日食期间，南支槽预计将移动至云南东部、贵州和湖北西南部，预计这一带的东部邻近地区天气将不佳。

预报分析

　　2月28日前。

2010 Annular Solar Eclipse PFS Bulletin No. 5

FOREWORD

This is 2010 Annular Solar Eclipse PFS Bulletin No. 5, the final forecast update before the eclipse, issued in both English and Chinese. No major changes were made on the forecast philosophy since last bulletin. The forecast diagrams mentioned below may be found at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=en&product_id=2, http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil and http://www.ecmwf.int. Numeric forecast for various locations may be found at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=en&product_id=1. RSS feed of this service is available at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/wordpress/?feed=rss2&cat=46.

ANALYSIS

The three global models, NCEP GFS at JAN14/00Z, ECMWF at JAN 12/12Z, and FNMOC NOGAPS JAN 13/18Z now show an almost consistent forecast: a significant westerly trough over central Yangtze Valley and Western Sichuan Plateau with an associated wet area south of the annularity path to 116E over east. The 1030hPa contour reaches 30N, but the near-surface wind forecast suggests the winter monsoon has weaken at that time. NOGAPS suggested that the visibility of most part of Myanmar, Sichuan Basin, Central Yangtze Valley and nearby area would be poor. EFS suggested a minimum chance of rain along the annularity path.

OBSERVATION

Here is a list of the weather on Jan. 13 of some major cities along the annularity path:

• Mandalay, Myanmar: sunny, visibility around 8 km.
• Ruili, China: overcast to broken clouds, visibility around 20 km.
• Dali, China: sunny, visibility near 30 km.
• Chongqing, China: mist and fog, visibility around 3 km.
• Nanyang, China: mainly sunny, visibility over 20 km.
• Jinan, China: sunny, visibility around 23 km.
• Qingdao, China: sunny, visibility around 15 km.

FORECAST

The divergence between the models is minimum, therefore, the uncertainty of this forecast is reduced to minimum. This forecast also makes use of ground-based observation and satellite data.

Local forecasts are listed below.

• In Myanmar: mainly sunny with a few clouds, with some haze in valley.
• In Yunnan, China: mainly sunny with a few clouds and good visibility.
• Around Chongqing, China: mist and fog, with low visibility, but sunshine is possible on highlands.
• Around Shiyan and Nanyang, China: broken clouds, but likely to be cirrus, with low to fair visibility.
• In Shandong, China: cloudy, but likely to be cirrus, the visibility shall be fair.

REVIEW UPDATE

Before Feburary 28.

日环食精密预测公报第四号

前言

　　这是2010年日环食精密预测公报第四号，以中文和英文编制。本报的预测方法较上报没有显著变化。公报中提及的预报资料可在http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=zh_cn&product_id=2, http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil和http://www.ecmwf.int查阅。对于任意地点的数值预报可查阅http: //7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=zh_cn&product_id=1。本服务的RSS种子为http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/wordpress/?feed=rss2&cat=47。

分析

　　NCEP GFS在1月12日06Z初始化的预报显示南支槽正集结于东经103度、北纬28度周围，与其关联的湿区在环食带上延伸至东经116度。1030百帕等值线触及北纬30度，但近地面风场显示届时冬季风已减弱。

　　ECMWF在1月12日00Z初始化的预报则给出了一个较GFS的预报偏西5度左右的南支槽；从地面图上观察，ECMWF认为冬季风较GFS略强一些。

　　FNMOC NOGAPS在1月12日06Z初始化的预报给出了介于GFS和ECMWF预报之间的南支槽，中心大致位于东经100度，北纬28度左右；1030百帕等值线触及北 纬25度。NOGAPS同时指出四川盆地及周边地区的能见度将会低于10公里。同一时刻的EFS认为预报区域内环食带上降水概率接近0%。

　　可以看出：中南半岛北部将有一西风槽，大陆上的冬季风正在减弱，但对于这一对系统的位置/强弱，三个模式分歧较大。

预报

　　由于各模式分歧显著，因此本报的不确定性保持中等。如果GFS正确（即南支槽较偏东、冬季风很弱），则云南西部天气较好，西南地区大部、华南和华中的部分地区天气不佳。但从历史统计上来看，ECMWF的准确率较GFS高一点，而且相对而言ECMWF和NOGAPS的预报比较接近，因此本报偏重于这两者的预报，采取了较偏西的南支槽以及偏强一些的冬季风。请注意：由于目前网络上绝大多数的天气网站都采用的是GFS，鉴于上述理由，它们的预报和本报的分歧可能较大。

• 云南地区、四川南部：大致多云，但如果南支槽较偏东则有望少云或晴天；
• 重庆地区：有雾；
• 十堰、南阳一带：可望天晴，能见度一般，适宜观测；
• 山东地区：可望天晴或少云，但灰霾可能会对观测造成一定影响。

下次更新

　　1月14日北京时间12时作最终预报更新。

2010 Annular Solar Eclipse PFS Bulletin No. 4

FOREWORD

This is 2010 Annular Solar Eclipse PFS Bulletin No. 4, issued in both English and Chinese. No major changes were made on the forecast philosophy since last bulletin. The forecast diagrams mentioned below may be found at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=en&product_id=2, http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil and http://www.ecmwf.int. Numeric forecast for various locations may be found at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/product.php?language=en&product_id=1. RSS feed of this service is available at http://7timer.y234.cn/V3/wordpress/?feed=rss2&cat=46.

ANALYSIS

NCEP GFS JAN12/06Z's forecast shows a significant westerly trough around 103E 28N, the associated wet area reaches 116E over the annularity path. Over the east, the 1030hPa contour reaches 30N, but the near-surface wind forecast suggests the winter monsoon has weaken at that time.

ECMWF JAN12/00Z's forecast shows the same westerly trough over western China, but is about 3-5 degrees west of GFS's forecast. Meanwhile, ECMWF gives a slightly stronger winter monsoon persisting over East China.

FNMOC NOGAPS JAN12/06Z's forecast gives a westward westerly trough located between the ECMWF's prediction and GFS's prediction, centred at 100E, 28N. NOGAPS also expect a strong but weakening winter monsoon persisted over east, with 1030hPa contour reaches as south as 25N. NOGAPS also notes low visibility (<10km) may be applied at Sichuan Basin and at the annularity path over Yangtze Valley. FNMOC EFS JAN12/06Z's forecast suggests minimum chance for significant rainfall along the annularity path.

For analyses of the models above, we can depict: a westerly trough lies at somewhere over the northern Indo-China Peninsula, and a winter monsoon is weakening over mainland China; however there is still considerable divergence over the location of the westerly trough between the models.

FORECAST

Since the divergence between the models is still quite significant, the uncertainty of this forecast remains moderate. The situation varies over the models. If GFS gets it right (on an eastward trough and a weak winter monsoon), then we can expect a fair weather over the west of Yunnan, but generally poor sky around Sichuan Basin and some parts of Central and South China. However, statistically ECMWF has a better performance, and what is more, NOGAPS also suggests a slow moving trough, so in this forecast the author consider the situation of a slow moving trough and a slow weaken monsoon. It should point out that many weather websites employ GFS, which is somehow against the philosophy of this forecast, as their numeric model, so there can be significant difference between this forecast and the weather information from the internet.

Local forecasts are listed below.

• In Myanmar: mainly clear with a few clouds, with some haze in valley. More clouds to the northeast.
• In Yunnan, China: mainly cloudy along the annularity path; however, if the westerly trough moves faster than expected (or close to GFS's forecast), then there will be a good chance for a less cloudy or even sunny weather.
• Around Chongqing, China: foggy.
• Around Shiyan and Nanyang, China: sunny weather possible with fair visibility for solar observation at low elevation.
• In Shandong, China: sunny or less cloudy weather possible, but the visibility may be low for solar observation at low elevation.

NEXT UPDATE

Brief final update around January 14 0400 UTC.